I don't have sufficient evidence to prove that I am accurate in my theory but from previous news articles I have read, the first son of Kim Jong Il (who fell out of favor) was in China, involved in money laundering and arms trade. If this is correct, I believe North Korea will see a huge internal conflict - a struggle for power between the two sons. Not long ago, the head of the Parliament was called in for a meeting by Kim Jong Il because of the apparent division in the government between factions loyal to the first son and the factions loyal to the recently named successor. If these factions confront each other, it will lead to a civil war. Then the fate of the Korean peninsula is even more difficult to predict because if North Korea becomes a failed state, who will claim legitimacy over those lands? China? Russia? Or South Korea? Reunification of the North and the South is extremely difficult because North Korea is rich in natural resources and has the manpower while the South has the capital and the technology for further economic advancement. Will these major countries let South Korea become stronger? It's difficult to say.
Source: Myself.
It is funny how analysts talk about Kim Jong Un. The same information is out that he studied in Europe etc. Honestly no one knows what is going on in North Korea except for the leadership themselves. If there is a eventual reunification, the south would have to bear the burden of a very poor country.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's the same process of the West and East Germany in the 90s. But it's possible, just difficult. The reason why I personally don't think it will happen is because then Korea would become too strong economically and military-wise. North Korea right now is a nuclear power with majority of its population serving in the army. Not only would that increase manpower, but also make the unified Korea a nuclear power. Moreover, North Korea is still rich in natural resources like iron which South Korea does not have. South Korea would no longer need to buy iron from another country in order to manufacture goods. In addition, the US government would lose money because it can no more reason to sell its old weapons/tanks/aircraft/ships to South Korea anymore because they won't be at war. Unless Korea collapses as a result of too much burden, the reunified Korea would be too powerful; China, Russia and Japan won't let that happen.
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