Korea after Kim Jong-il: a path for reunification?

With the death of Kim Jong-il, all the major media networks now have the flashing “Breaking News” banners flashing and are talking about how South Korea is now on “heightened alert.” But before we let the paranoia-loving news networks get to our heads, it’s important to analyze the death of Kim Jong-il in the large scheme of things.

To start with, Kim Jong-il was an evil person and there is no question that the world is a much better place without him. Throughout his rule, the man defied numerous global outcries about the mass starvation in his country and instead decided to focus on building his arsenal of nuclear weapons. Even though the passing of Kim Jong-il is being taken as good news (as it should be, with people comparing him to Bin Laden and Gadhafi on Twitter), some people argue that things might get even worse under the apparent successor, one of Kim Jong-il’s sons: Kim Jong-un.

When Kim Jong-il first took power, the North Korean economy was already in shambles and many anticipated that the military was going to take control over the state. This did not take place and Kim Jong-il managed to centralize the state around him until his death. The circumstances that Kim Jong-un is now taking power under are eerily similar to the conditions under which his father took power. However, the results are likely to be different. According to Chung Young Tae of the Korea Institute of National Unification, there is a “big possibility that a power struggle may happen (in North Korea.”

No matter who might emerge as North Korea’s leader, the fact remains that North Korea is in an absolutely terrible economic position. It has come to a point where the North Korean government has increased its interactions with the international community, with the goal of seeking food. Over the course of the past few months, there have been “behind-the-scenes diplomatic contacts“ between North Korea and the United States. Word is that the United States will be announcing a significant donation of food to North Korea this week and that an agreement by North Korea to suspend its uranium enrichment program will likely follow.

My prediction is that this current economic instability, along with the now high possibility of political instability, will eventually lead to the failure of the North Korean state. Often misunderstood by the media, there has always been an intention from both Korean sides to reunite, but the problem has consisted in acknowledging and settling their differences. The failure of the North Korean state would hasten this process. However, a classmate and friend of mine, Junseo Lee, raises an excellent question in the previous post as to what would happen if North Korea did become a failed state. Lee asks: “…if North Korea becomes a failed state, who will claim legitimacy over those lands? China? Russia? Or South Korea?” I argue that any efforts from China or Russia to claim this territory is unlikely and that South Korea would in a way “absorb” the North, making for the reunification of the Korean nation.

But there also certain complications that arise with the possibility of reunification. For example, the mere economic disparity is striking. Recent data shows that North Korea’s GDP was estimated at $40 million, compared with the prosperous South Korea, with an estimated GDP of $1.138 trillion. Should the two states reunite into one nation, there is the possibility of a mass exodus of people living in the North to the South. There is no obvious South Korean plan for such a possibility and this would pose a huge problem for the nation.

Despite these complications, the prospects of Korean reunification would create a powerful, democratic, regional power. This would be good for the United States, as it would help counter-balance the Chinese. But it’s important to point out that the failure of the Korean state and possible reunification is not something that is imminent today or tomorrow, it is likely to take years.

I simply argue that the current North Korean state, especially in the context of a likely power struggle, will not be able to survive for that much longer and will likely fail. It is my hope and argument that this will eventually lead to the reunification of the Korean state, and the reunification of the Korean people.