Working from a neorealist perspective, I offer an interpretation of the Syrian Civil War in terms of ethnic partition theory. However, in order to reasonably interpret the Syrian situation through the lens of ethnic partition theory, the theory’s central conceptual model of the proliferation of sectarian violence—the ethnic security dilemma—must be revised. I propose a nuanced account of the ethnic security dilemma referred to as the heterogeneity time bomb hypothesis. I submit that this modified account of the ethnic security dilemma will supply the theoretical equipment necessary to defend an ethnic partition theory-based interpretation of the Syrian Civil War from the critics of such an interpretation, in particular, Erin K. Jenne.
There are at least three problems with applying ethnic partition theory to the case of Syria. More generally, these three problems prevent the application of ethnic partition theory, and consequently, its policy implications of population transfer and new borders, to more than a small handful of particular cases. I refer to these problems as the problem of elites, the problem of the threshold, and the problem of other causes. These three problems facing ethnic partition theory can be summarized by three questions, respectively. (1) What if it is the case that ethnic cleansing and sectarian violence are carried out by malevolent offensively-oriented opportunists rather than rational defensively-oriented security-seekers? (2) How can we know the point at which an ethnic security dilemma is occurring, and if we can, at what point does it warrant partition? (3) If it is the case that sectarian violence is caused by a source other than interethnic animosities, what good will new borders and population transfer do?
The heterogeneity time bomb hypothesis, I believe, provides a defense to ethnic partition theory in light of these problems. The hypothesis may be stated thus: given x level of ethnic heterogeneity within a state, any civil conflict necessarily approaches the ethnic security dilemma. The subtlety of this hypothesis stresses the temporal dimension of the security dilemma phenomenon as well as the requirement for sufficient ethnic heterogeneity. So long as a violent civil conflict is ongoing, a state will invariably approach conditions of anarchy, and consequently, the security dilemma. The hypothetical syllogism implied by the heterogeneity time bomb hypothesis can be stated thus: If a civil conflict emerges, then a state of x ethnic heterogeneity will approach anarchy. If a state of x ethnic heterogeneity approaches anarchy, then it approaches the ethnic security dilemma. Therefore, if a civil conflict emerges, then a state of x ethnic heterogeneity will approach the ethnic security dilemma.
Thus, the project endeavors to complete four goals: (a) provide an overview of ethnic partition theory as articulated most prominently by Chaim Kaufmann as well as common objections to it, (b) identify the current weaknesses of ethnic partition theory that preclude its reasonable application to cases more generally, (c) propose and articulate a nuanced account of the ethnic security dilemma that can address the weaknesses faced by ethnic partition theory and better defend it from its critics, and (d) offer an interpretation of the Syrian Civil War in terms of such a nuanced account of the ethnic security dilemma.
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